News in end use

According to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for November 2021, mortgage applications for new home purchases declined -3.0% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year. Based on data from the BAS, the MBA estimates that new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 905,000 units in November.

The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 206,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, December 11, 2021. This is an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 203,750 — a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised average.

According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the trend in housing starts was 267,365 units in November, up from 264,583 units in October. This trend measures a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted rates of housing starts in Canada. The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 301,279 units in November, an increase of 26% from 238,366 units in October.

On Wednesday (12-15-21), The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reported that builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes edged 1-point higher in December to a reading of 84. This marks the fourth consecutive upward movement in the HMI and ties year’s highest reading (February).

Freddie Mac on Tuesday (12-14-21) confirmed that immediate mortgage relief options for homeowners affected by the tornado outbreaks in Kentucky and surrounding areas last weekend. The disaster relief options are available to homeowners whose homes or places of employment are located in presidentially declared Major Disaster Areas where federal individual-assistance programs are made available to affected individuals and households.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) released today (12-15-21) the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. The CPI rose 4.7% on a year-over-year basis in November, matching the increase in October. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.6% year over year. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up 0.2% in November, following a 0.7% increase in October.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey (WMAS), for the week ending December 10, 2021, the Market Composite Index (a measure of mortgage loan application volume) decreased -4% percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased -6% compared with the previous week.

According to economists for Realtor.com, a real estate listing site owned by News Corp., the run-on home prices is almost over. Realtor.com is forecasting that over the next 12-months the median existing home sales prices will rise 2.9%. That would be a substantial slowing, as U.S. home prices year-over-year in September were up 19.5%.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) today (12-14-21) released its Industrial Products Price Index (IPPI) for November 2021. According to the “flash estimate,” the IPPI increased 0.8% month-over-month in November. Year-over-year the IPPI was up 18.3%. Softwood lumber rose 5.3% in November, after an increase of 13.3% in October. Year over year, prices for softwood lumber were up 21.8%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today (12-14-21) that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, seasonally adjusted, increased 0.8% in November. Final demand prices moved 0.6% higher in each of the 3 prior months. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6% for the 12 months ended in November — the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.