The forest products industry is complex and hyper-changeable. To successfully play in this universe, you need advice, data, and an overview from an unbiased, details-obsessed, independent source. Economic forecasts, lumber, timber, panels, mass timber and engineered wood products – this is FEA.
If a tree falls in the forest, we not only hear it – we follow it, analyze it and track it.
Whatever’s happening along the forest supply chain, from planting to felling to final use, we’re watching it, regionally, nationally, internationally. FEA people seek out every forestry detail, are obsessed with economics, trends and providing clients with deeply-rooted advice that informs their important decisions.
Why we’re here
We formed FEA when we recognized a need in the industry for impartial, exhaustive analysis, accessible data and customized consulting. FEA analysts come from all areas of the timber industry – when they talk, industry listens.
FEA markets our knowledge and data through analytical products that cover the forest product industry. These include Monthly Advisors and newsletters for near-term analysis, the Quarterly Forecasting Service for a longer-term outlook and an extensive historical database, as well as the industry's only comprehensive, up-to-date, mill-level capacity reports, categorized by sector.
The US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced that new residential single-family home sales for October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000, according to estimates. This is 7.5% above the revised September rate of 588,000 but 5.8% below October 2021.
According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Application Survey, for the week ending November 18th, the Market Composite Index (a measure of mortgage loan application volume) increased 2.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS) for the week ending November 23th. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.58%, down from last week when it averaged 6.61%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.10%.
A huge number of homes slated for construction in the US this year are still waiting to be built or completed as a chronic labor shortage, tight supplies, and steep inflation wallop homebuilders’ confidence. This comes on the heels of the industry’s rockstar performance in 2021 following a surge in pandemic-induced homebuilding demand that took the industry by surprise.
CME Group Inc. plans to replace its lumber futures contract with a smaller version that will be deliverable to Chicago rather than Western Canada, following two volatile years that lifted prices to record highs. This new truckload-size contract will be a quarter the volume of the current lumber futures, and is designed to attract more buyers and sellers to the market. The new physically delivered futures and accompanying options contracts are set to launch Aug. 8, pending regulatory approval from Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Sanctions on Russia, including the ban on using the SWIFT money transfer system, will severely limit its ability to participate in international trade, but the impacts to its softwood log and lumber trade are likely to be less affected than other industries.
Over half of Russia’s softwood lumber trade and three-quarters of its softwood log trade is with China (graphs below). China has not imposed sanctions on Russia and has payment systems independent from the SWIFT system. Only ocean shipments from St. Petersburg, which account for around 25% of China’s total volume from Russia, are traded with letters of credit based in US dollars. Some contracts have already been changed to Chinese RMB payments, however trade from Northwest Russia is likely to suffer some in the coming months.
With global markets again approaching record levels, a timely sharing of current industry and market information from around the world is even more important than ever.
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