News in end use

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), one of the largest small business associations in the US, reported today (12-14-21) that their NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped -0.2 points to a reading of 98.4 in November. Four of the 10 components improved, while 4 declined and 2 remained unchanged. The NFIB Uncertainty Index dropped -4 points to a reading of 63.

According to the latest from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States, i.e., the “Flow of Funds”, the aggregate value of all home mortgages of households and nonprofit organizations in the United States in the Q3 of 2021 registered the largest post-Great Recession numerical quarterly increase. From $11.3 trillion in Q2 of 2021, household liabilities rose by $230 billion to $11.5 trillion.

ATTOM’s Q3 2021 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report reveals that 59 million mortgages secured by residential properties were developed in Q3. Those figures were up 3% from Q3 of 2020, but down -8% from the Q2 of 2021. This amounted to the largest quarterly decline in over a year.

Redfin, the Seattle-based, technology-powered real estate company, reported that the median home-sale price in the four-week period ending December 5, 2021 hit a new all-time record high of $360,250 — up 14% year-over-year and up 30% for the same period of time in 2019. At the same time, new listings of homes for sale were down -7% year-over-year but up 11% from 2019.

The University of Michigan today (Friday 12-10-21) released its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for December. The CSI increased to a reading of 70.4 in December, up from 67.4 in November. This is a month-over-month increase of 4.5%, but it is down -12.8% year-over-year (80.7 in December 2020). The Current Economic Conditions increased to a reading of 74.6 in December, up from 73.6 in November.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday (12-10-21) that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9% in October. Over the past 12-months, the all-item index has increased 6.8% before seasonal adjustment. The largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) today (12-9-21) reported that investment in building, after five consecutive months of declines, posted an increase of 1.6% to $17.8 billion (CAD) in October. Quebec led the way with a 3.5% increase. On a constant dollar basis (2012=100), investment in building construction increased 1.6% to $12.3 billion. Residential construction investment rose 1.4% to $12.9 billion in October.

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending December 9, 2021. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.10% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 9, 2021, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.11%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.71%.

The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 184,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, December 4, 2021 — a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 6, 1969, when it was 182,000.

“We just saw the first full year of above-average construction since the mid-2000s housing crash. This isn’t a new boom cycle of new construction so much as it’s an attempt to get even from the last bust. There is still a long way to go to catch up from more than a decade of slow construction, and some markets have longer to go than others.”