U.S. Leading Economic Index® Declines in January 2022

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (2-18-22) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. in January 2022. According to the report, the LEI for the U.S. decreased by -0.3% in January to 119.6 (2016=100), following a 0.7% in increase in December and a 0.8% increase in November.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.5% in January to 107.9 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in both December and November.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.7% in January to 110.2 (2016=100), following a 0.4% increase in December and a 0.1% increase in November.

In remarks prepared for the release of the January LEI, Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, stated:

“The U.S. LEI posted a small decline in January, as the Omicron wave, rising prices, and supply chain disruptions took their toll. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, consumers’ outlook and declines in stock prices, and the average work week in manufacturing all contributed to the decline—the first since February 2021.”

“Despite this month’s decline and a deceleration in the LEI’s six-month growth rate, widespread strengths among the leading indicators still point to continued, albeit slower, economic growth into the spring. However, labor shortages, inflation, and the potential of new COVID-19 variants pose risks to growth in the near term. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 to slow somewhat from the very rapid pace of Q4 2021. Still, the US economy is projected to expand by a robust 3.5 percent year-over-year in 2022—well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2 percent.”