The Conference Board, which was founded in 1916 as a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank, released today (8-19-21) their July 2021 Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. According to the release, the LEI (which is based on ten separate components) increased by 0.9% in July to 116.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in June and a 1.2% increase in May.
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30-Year Mortgage Rates Adjusts Slightly Lower in the Week Ending August 19, 2021
Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending August 19, 2021. The PMMS reports that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.86% with an average 0.7 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.87%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.99%.
Fannie Mae Lowers GDP Expectations for Q4/Q4 to 6.3% from 7.0%
The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, today (8-19-21) revised their forecast for 2021 real gross domestic product (GDP) lower, from 7.0% to 6.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, with a partial offsetting upgrade to the 2022 expected growth rate to 3.2% from 2.8%.
Weekly Jobless Claims Continued to Decline in the Week Ending August 14, 2021
The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 348,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, August 14, 2021. This is a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week’s revised level and the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020, when it was 256,000.
Housing Starts Trend Lower in July; Permits and Completions Increase
The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that privately‐owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,534,000. This is -7.0% below the revised June rate of 1,650,000 but is 2.5% above the July 2020 rate of 1,497,000.
Canadian Consumer Price Index Increases Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year
Statistics Canada (StatsCan) reported today (8-18-21) that the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in July, up from a 3.1% rise in June. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year.
Mortgage Applications Decline in the Week Ending August 13, 2021
According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey (WMAS), for the week ending August 13, 2021, the Market Composite Index (a measure of mortgage loan application volume) decreased -3.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased -4% compared with the previous week.
Canadian Home Sales Decline for Fourth Consecutive Month in July, Falling -15.2% Year-Over-Year
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported on Monday (8-16-21) that national home sales in Canada were down -3.5% on a month-over-month basis in July 2021. This marks the smallest of four consecutive declines since March. Year-over-year (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity declined -15.2%.
Mortgage Applications for New Home Purchases Drop -27.4% Year-Over-Year in July
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is reporting that data from their July 2021 Builder Application Survey (BAS) shows that mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased -27.4% year-over-year and were down -4.0% when compared to June 2021.
Builder Sentiment in the Market for Newly Built Single-Family Homes Declines 5-points in August 2021
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is reporting that builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes declined 5-points to a reading of 75 in August. This is its lowest level since July of 2020, and after builder confidence topped at a reading of 90 last November.