BEA Reports Real GDP in Q1 of 2022 Decreased at an Annual Rate of 1.6% in its “Third” Estimate

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released today (6-29-22) its “third” estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1 of 2022. According to the BEA’s “third” estimate real GDP in Q1 of 2022 declined at an annual rate of 1.6%. This following a 6.9% increase in GDP in Q4 of 2022.

The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the “second” estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 1.5%.

The decrease in Q1 2022 real GDP was revised down 0.1% from the second estimate, reflecting downward revisions to PCE and federal government spending that were mostly offset by upward revisions to private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports were revised up.

The BEA notes that in Q1 of 2002, an increase in COVID-19 cases related to the Omicron variant resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

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