US Real GDP Increases at an Annual Rate of 2.3% in Q4, BEA Reports in Its “Second” Estimate

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “second” estimate for Q4 real gross domestic product (GDP). Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3%, following a reported real GDP increase of 3.1% in Q3.

The “second” estimate was revised up by less than 0.1 percentage point from the “advance” estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment. The “third” and final estimate, based on more complete data, will be released on March 27.

The increase in real GDP in Q4 primarily reflected increases in consumer and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Compared to Q3, the deceleration in real GDP in Q4 primarily reflected downturns in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned down.

GDP for 2024

Real GDP increased 2.8% in 2024 (from the 2023 annual level to the 2024 annual level), the same as previously estimated. The increase in real GDP in 2024 reflected increases in consumer spending, investment, government spending, and exports. Imports increased.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.4% in 2024, revised up 0.1 percentage point. The PCE price index increased 2.5%, the same as the previous estimate. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8 %, also the same as the previous estimate.