News in end use

The University of Michigan today (1-28-22) released its final Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for January. The CSI declined to a reading of 67.2 in January, down from 70.6 in December. This is a month-over-month decrease of -4.8% and is down -14.9% year-over-year (79.0 in January 2021).

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported state employment and unemployment rates for December 2021. According to the BLS, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 17 states and was essentially unchanged in 33 states and the District of Columbia in December 2021. Over the year, 48 states and the District of Columbia added nonfarm payroll jobs and 2 states were essentially unchanged.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported on Thursday (1-27-22) that their Pending Homes Sales Index (PHSI), which is based on signed real estate contracts, not actual closings, for existing single-family homes, condominiums, and co-ops, declined -3.8% in December to a reading of 117.7. Year-over-year contract signings have also declined -6.9%. The December decline marks the second consecutive monthly drop-in activity.

A closer look at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “advance” estimate of Q4 GDP, with a specific look as to how housing impacted the results and analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reveals that the surge in residential investment in 2020, and its continued strength in 2021, allowed housing to remain an elevated component of the GDP — especially when compared to most of the post-Great Recession period.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported today (1-27-22) in the “advance” estimate that the real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.9% in Q4 2021. In Q3 of 2021, the real GDP increased 2.3%. The increase primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending.

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending January 27, 2022. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.55% with an average 0.7 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.56%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.73%.

The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 260,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, January 22, 2022. This is a decrease of 30,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 247,000 — an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised average.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended its two-day meeting on Wednesday (1-26-22) and announced that it had decided not to raise the Fed Funds Rate for the time being. The FOMC cited solid job gains and a decline in the unemployment rated as the reason for keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. “The Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate…”

On Wednesday (1-26-22), The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced that new residential single-family home sales for December 2021 were at a SAAR of 811,000, according to estimates. This is 11.9% above the revised November rate of 725,000 but is -14.0% below the December 2020 estimate of 943,000. The seasonally adjusted estimates of new houses for sales at the end of December was 403,000.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey (WMAS), for the week ending January 21, 2022, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, declined -7.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased -6.0% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased -13.0% from the previous week and was -53.0% lower than the same week one year ago.