FEA’s Paul Jannke Expects a Decline in Lumber Consumption in 2023, but Anticipates Prices to Largely Hold

According to reporting by Lancaster Farming (3-19-23), in a March 2nd webinar presented by Farm Credit East, Paul Jannke, a Principal at Forest Economic Advisors, said, “In 2023 we’re looking at a 7% decline lumber in consumption in North America, which equates to about 4 billion board feet. The bottom line is we do expect consumption to fall, but don’t expect it to be very sharp.”

Jannke added that lower consumption does not necessarily mean prices will follow. He noted that although prices are down from their 2020–21 peaks, they remain elevated when compared to historical averages.

In his presentation, Jannke predicted a mild recession at the end of 2023 or early 2024, which he said could further dampen demand.

In summary, Jannke said he expects the lumber markets to slip a bit in 2023 because of a predicted mild recession, elevated costs, weak exports, and continued strong imports. “Prices will be below where they were, but there will a lot less timber available from British Columbia and the West Coast, and that will hold prices up.”