News in end use

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined 0.7% in May to a reading of 106.7 (2016=100), after posting declines of 0.6% in April and 1.2% in March. The LEI has dropped 4.3% over the six-month period from November 2022 to May.

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 264,000 during the week ending on Saturday, June 17th. This is unchanged from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 255,750—an increase of 8,500.

Redfin reported that in May the number of homes for sale in the US declined 7.1% year-over-year to 1.4 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis. That is the lowest level in Redfin’s database, which dates back to 2012.

Multifamily investment increased by 5.3% in Q1 but decreased year-over-year, with the annual index down 16.6%. The Index’s quarterly increase nationwide and in all 25 markets was a sharp reversal from last quarter’s drop.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Market Composite Index, mortgage loan application volume rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index declined 1.0%.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased 2 basis points from 0.51% of servicers’ portfolio volume in April to 0.49% as of May 31st. The MBA estimates that 245,000 homeowners remain in forbearance plans.

Privately‐owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,631,000. This is 21.7% above the revised April estimate of 1,340,000 and 5.7% above the May 2022 rate of 1,543,000. Single-family housing starts were at a rate of 997,000; this is 18.5% above the revised April figure of 841,000.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications for new home purchases in May increased 8.0% month-over-month and were up 16.6% year-over-year. This change does not include any adjustments for seasonal patterns.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reported that builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes increased 5 points in June to a reading of 55. This marks the sixth consecutive monthly gain.

The prices of products manufactured in Canada, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), declined 1.0% month-over-month in May. Year-over-year, prices were 6.3% lower. This marks the largest year-over-year decline since October 2009.