The Conference Board, which was founded in 1916 as a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank, released today (3-18-22) their February 2021, Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. According to the release, the LEI which is based on ten separate components increased 0.2% in February, following a 0.5% increase in January and a 0.4% increase in December.
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30-Year Mortgage Rate Ticks Higher in the Week Ending March 18, 2021
Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending 18th March 2021. The PMMS reports that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.09% with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.05%.
Higher Interest Rates Will Eliminate Many Would be Home Buyers from the Marketplace
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) 2021 Priced-Out-Estimates reports that 75.1 million U.S. households are unable to afford a median priced new home and that an additional ~154,000 would be priced out if the price of a home were to go up by $1,000.
Canadian Consumer Price Index Rises at a Faster Pace Year-Over-Year in February
Statistics Canada (StatsCan) is reporting the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a faster pace year-over-year in February (+1.1%) than in January (+1.0%). The increase in gasoline prices (+5.0%) led to consumer price growth in February. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 1.0% in February, down from a 1.3% increase in January.
Mortgage Applications Decrease -2.2% in the Week Ending March 12, 2021
According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey, for the week ending March 12, 2021, the Market Composite Index — a measure of mortgage loan application volume — decreased -2.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased -2% compared with the previous week.
Housing Starts and Permits Down but Housing Completions were Up in February 2021
The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,421,000. This is -10.3% below the revised January estimate of 1,584,000 and is -9.3% below the February 2020 rate. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,040,000; and this is -8.5% below the revised January figure.
Mortgage Applications for New Home Purchases Drop -9% between January and February 2021
The latest Builder Application Survey (BAS) from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) for February 2021 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 9.2% year-over-year (February 2020 – February 2021).
Canadian Wood Product Sales Jump 9.1% in January Driven by Higher Sales Volume and Prices
Statistics Canada (StatsCan) is reporting that manufacturing sales rose 3.1% to $56.2 billion in January, following a 1.3% gain in December. Sales were up in 16 of 21 industries, driven mainly by the wood products, computer and electronic products, and primary metal industries.
State by State Construction Sector Employment Analysis from January’s Nonfarm Payroll Report
Further analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics January nonfarm payroll report, provided by the National Association of Home Builders, reveals that nonfarm payroll increased in 36 states in January compared to December, while 14 states and D.C. reported job losses.
Builder Confidence Declines in March but Remains Elevated
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reports that builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes declined 2-point in March, after a 1-point increase in February, to a reading of 82.