News in end use

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), reported today (6-8-21) that the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell -.02 points in May to a reading of 99.6. In May, there was a slight pause in the recovery of small business optimism after steadily improving from January through April 2021. In May a record-high number of business owners (48%) reported unfilled job openings.

The latest Mortgage Banker Association’s (MBA) Forbearance and Call Survey reports that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 4.18% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 4.16% as of May 30, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today (6-8-21) reported its Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April 2021. According to the JOLTS report, as of the last business day in April, the number and rate of job openings reached a series high of 9.3 million (+998,000) or +6.0%. Hires were little changed at 6.1 million or +4.2%.

Redfin, the Seattle-based technology-powered real estate brokerage, is reporting that in the 4-weeks ending May 30, 2021, both pending sales asking prices began to decline or flatten. Redfin noted that some of the key takeaways for the time period could be potential signs that the housing market might be cooling down.

According to the latest Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI), only 35% of consumers believe now is a good time to buy a home. The HPSI increased by 1.0 points in May to a reading of 80.0. Four of the six HPSI’s components increased month-over-month, most notably the components related to personal finance, as consumers reported a much greater sense of job security and improved household income compared to the same time last year.

A deeper dive into the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) total nonfarm payroll employment report for May, with an emphasis on the construction sector, reveals that total nonfarm payroll increased by 559,000 and the unemployment rate declined by -0.3 point to 5.8% percent. However, employment in the overall construction sector declined by -20,000 in May, following a revised decrease of 5,000 jobs in April.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is reporting that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 559,000 in May, following a disappointing increase of 278,999 in April and a surge in March of 785,000. In May, nonfarm payroll employment is down by 7.6 million, or -5.0% from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) is reporting that Canadian employment fell by 68,000 (-0.4%) in May, adding to a decline of 207,000 in April. The unemployment rate was little changed at 8.2%.

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending May 27, 2021. The PMMS reports that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.99% with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.95%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.18%.

According to the latest data analysis from the 2019 American Community Survey, the average median age of an owner-occupied home is now 39 years old. In 2005, the median age was 31 years. Clearly, the U.S. owner-occupied housing stock is aging gradually.