News in end use

On Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that privately‐owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,555,000. This is -1.6% below the revised August rate of 1,580,000 but is 7.4% above the September 2020 rate of 1,448,000. Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 1,080,000, virtually unchanged from the revised August figure.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced today (10-19-21) the results of their Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for September 2021. The BAS reveals that mortgage applications for new home purchases declined -16.2% compared to September 2020. When compared to August 2021, applications decreased by -4%.

The latest Mortgage Banker Association’s (MBA) Forbearance and Call Survey reports that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 34 basis points from 2.62% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.28% as of October 10, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) announced today (10-18-21) that the trend, which is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts, in September was 271,068 units, down from 284,757 units in August 2021. The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 251,151 units in September, a decrease of -4.4% from 262,754 units in August.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reported that builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes edged 4-points higher in October to a reading of 80. This marks the second consecutive upward movement in the HMI. Builder confidence topped at a level of 90 in November 2020.

According to Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group’s October 2021 commentary, global supply chain constraints continue to cap economic output amid growing inflationary and consumer-spending concerns. Accordingly, the ESR Group revised downward its full-year 2021 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections from 5.4% to 4.9%.

Redfin, the Seattle-based, technology-powered real estate brokerage, reported in a news release on Friday (10-15-21) that year-over-year the median home sales prices rose 14% in September to $376,800.

A closer look at the recently released Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) September Produce Price Index (PPI), with analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reveals that prices paid for goods used in residential construction, less energy, decreased -0.8% — not seasonally adjusted — in September.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported today (Friday 10-15-21) that Canadian national home sales edged higher between August and September 2021. According to the CREA, Canadian home sales rose 0.9% on a monthly basis in September — the first month-over-month increase since March 2021.

Statistic Canada (StatsCan) today (10-15-21) released their flash estimates for the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) for September. The IPPI increased 1.0% month-over-month in September and was up 15.0% year-over-year. The month-over-month increase in IPPI was led higher by 3.3% increase in energy and petroleum.