According to the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Trends Report (HTR), the number of prospective buyers looking for a newly built home has declined steadily since reaching 42% in Q4 of 2020. In Q3 of 2021, that number was down to 32%. Of course, when compared to Q1 of 2018, when there were only 15% of prospective buyers looking for a new home, it looks rather substantial.
News in end use
Mortgage Applications Increase 0.3% in the Week Ending October 22, 2021
According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey (WMAS), for the week ending October 22, 2021, the Market Composite Index — a measure of mortgage loan application volume — increased 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.2% compared with the previous week.
After Two Weeks of Accelerated Declines, Forbearance Rate Slows in Week Ending October 17, 2021
The latest Mortgage Banker Association’s (MBA) Forbearance and Call Survey reports that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 2.28% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.21% as of October 17, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.
New Residential Home Sales up 14% Month-Over-Month in September
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Deptartment of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced on Tuesday (10-26-21) that new residential single-family home sales for September 2021 were at a SAAR of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 14.0% above the revised August rate of 702,000.
Consumer Confidence Increases in October after Three Consecutive Months of Declines
The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (10-26-21) their Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for October 2021. The CCI increased in October, following decreases in August July and June. The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), up from 109.8 in September.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Jumps 19.8% Year-Over-Year in August
According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. Census divisions, reported today (10-26-21) that home prices experienced a 19.8% annual gain in August 2021, unchanged from July. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 18.6% down from 19.1% in the previous month.
Federal Housing Finance Agency Reports U.S. Home Prices Increase 1.0% Month-Over-Month and 18.5% Year-Over-Year in August 2021
According to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI®), U.S. house prices increased month-over-month 1.0% in August. House prices increased 18.5% from August 2020 to August 2021. The previously reported 1.4% price change for July 2021 remained unchanged.
Remodeling Growth Forecasted to Continue Deep into 2022
The Remodeling Futures Program at The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University released on Thursday (10-21-21) their Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) Report. According to the LIRA, strong growth in home improvement and maintenance expenditures is expected to continue over the coming year.
September Construction Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report Released, Including State-By-State Breakdown
A closer look at the September 2021 Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report by state reveals that across the 48 states which reported construction sector jobs data — which includes both residential as well as non-residential construction — 30 states reported an increase in September compared to August, while 16 states lost construction sector jobs.
Desire for Home Ownership Moderated Slightly in Q3 2021 but still Remains Strong
At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Q1 of 2020, the share of adults planning a home purchase hit a low of 10%. However, over the next five consecutive quarters that number increased and peaked at 17% in Q2 of 2021. Home purchasing desire cooled in Q3 of 2021, with share falling to 16%.