News in end use

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending June 10, 2021. The PMMS reports that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.93% with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.96%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.13%.

The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 412,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, June 12, 2021 — an increase of 37,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 395,00, which is a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average.

According to a report released today (6-16-21) by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) and authored by the Rosen Consulting Group, decades of underinvestment and underbuilding have created a shortage of housing in the U.S. that is more direct than previously anticipated and will require a concerted and long-term nationwide commitment to overcome.

The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that privately‐owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,572,000. This is 3.6% above the revised April rate of 1,517,000 and is 50.3% above the May 2020 rate of 1,046,000.

According to statistics released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) on Tuesday (6-15-21), Canadian national home sales and new listings were both down in May 2021. National homes sales recorded over the Canadian MLS® system declined month-over-month by -7.4% in May.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) is reporting that on a year-over-year basis the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% in May, up from a 3.4% gain in April. This is largest yearly increase since May 2011. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey, for the week ending June 11, 2021, the Market Composite Index — a measure of mortgage loan application volume — increased by 4.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 15% compared with the previous week.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is reporting that the trend in housing starts was 280,779 units in May 2021, up slightly from 278,462 units in April 2021. This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) is reporting that the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) is up by 3.1% month-over-month in May, marking the IPPI’s sixth consecutive monthly increase. Year-over-year, the IPPI was up 16.9% — the largest increase since January 1975 when it was up 17.7%.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is reporting that builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes declined 2 points to a reading of 81 in June. This is its lowest level since August of 2020 and after builder confidence topped at a level of 90 last November.