News in end use

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its new monthly Loan Monitoring Survey (LMS), which tracks the total number of loans now in forbearance. According to the LMS, the total number of loans in forbearance in November declined by 39 basis points from 2.6% of servicers’ portfolio in the month prior to 1.67% as of November 30, 2021.

According to statistics released on Wednesday (12-15-21) by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems edged up 0.6% between October and November 2021. The small increase followed on the heels of a 9% increase in activity in October. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in November 2021 was very strong historically, edging down a scant -0.7% on a year-over-year basis.

In November, U.S. home values increased 1.2% from October and year-over-year they are 19.3% higher. This is a record high for price appreciation for any 12-month period in this century. The report notes that while monthly growth slowed nationally, it accelerated in 30 of the 50 largest metro areas. If this trend continues, the market cooling over the past few months may be short-lived, and this could be an unseasonably warm winter housing market.

In their latest report, Redfin, the Seattle-based, technology-powered real estate brokerage firm, is reporting that 59.5% of home offers written by their agents faced competition in November. This is the lowest level in 11 months, and it is down from a revised rate of 61.8% in October and the peak pandemic levels of 74.6% set in April of this year.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported on Thursday that privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,679,000. This is 11.8% above the revised October rate of 1,502,000 and is 8.3% above the November 2020 rate of 1,551,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,173,000, and this is 11.3% above the revised October figure of 1,054,000.

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending December 16, 2021. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.12% with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.10%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.67%.

According to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for November 2021, mortgage applications for new home purchases declined -3.0% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year. Based on data from the BAS, the MBA estimates that new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 905,000 units in November.

The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 206,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, December 11, 2021. This is an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 203,750 — a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised average.

According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the trend in housing starts was 267,365 units in November, up from 264,583 units in October. This trend measures a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted rates of housing starts in Canada. The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 301,279 units in November, an increase of 26% from 238,366 units in October.

On Wednesday (12-15-21), The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reported that builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes edged 1-point higher in December to a reading of 84. This marks the fourth consecutive upward movement in the HMI and ties year’s highest reading (February).