News in end use

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey (WMAS), for the week ending January 14, 2022, the Market Composite Index — a measure of mortgage loan application volume — increased 2.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased -3% from the previous week and was -49% lower than the same week one year ago.

According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the trend in housing starts was 260,567 units in December, down from 267,606 units in November. This trend measures a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted rates of housing starts in Canada. The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 236,106 units in December, a decline of -22% from 303,813 units in November.

Redfin reported on Friday (1-14-22) that there were fewer homes than ever available for sale in December. This drove seasonally adjusted home sales down -3.6% from November and -11% when compared to December 2020 — the largest month-over-month sales decline since May 2020. On the other hand, home prices surged 15% higher year-over-year, marking the 17th consecutive month of double-digit home price increases.

According to statistics released on Monday (1-17-22) by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems edged up 0.2% between November and December 2021. The small increases in November and December followed on the heels of a 9% increase in activity in October. This places sales in Q4 2021 between the highs and lows seen earlier in the year. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in December 2021 came in -9.9% below the record for December, which was set in December of 2020.

On Tuesday (1-18-22), The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reported that builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes edged 1-point lower in January to a reading of 84. The HMI has hovered between 83 and 84 for the past three months, the same rate it was at in the spring of 2021. Builder confidence topped at a level of 90 in November 2020.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) reported on Friday (1-14-22) that the real gross domestic product (GDP) for the natural resource sector increased 2.9% in Q3 2021. The natural resources sector real GDP has now surpassed pre-pandemic levels, recovering from the -11.1% drop in Q2 of 2020.

According to analysis provided by the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) regarding the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) December Producer Price Index, construction input prices rose 0.6% in December when compared to November. Nonresidential construction input prices also increased 0.6% for the month.

According to the newest LendingTree survey, approximately 40% of Americans are considering a move in 2022. Among those responding to the survey, nearly a third said that the pandemic has changed what they are looking for in a home, as well as the location. Consumers are seeking more space to accommodate the actualities of remote work, as the global pandemic continues into another year.

The University of Michigan today (1-14-21) released its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for January. The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to a reading of 68.8 in January down from 70.6 in December — a month-over-month decrease of -2.5% and down -12.9% year-over-year (79.0 in January 2021). The Current Economic Conditions dropped to a reading of 73.2 in January, down from 74.2 in December — a month-over-month decrease of -1.3%, and down -15.6% year-over-year (86.7 in January 2021).