News in end use

According to the December 2021 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group (ESR), the outlook for full-year 2021 economic growth was revised upward to 5.5% — an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to November’s projections. The increases are due primarily to stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending and inventory investment data.

According to data from the recently released U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Market Absorption of Apartments (SOMA) and further analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the multifamily sector saw continued improvement in Q2 of 2021 due to strong demand and low vacancy rates. The absorption rate of unfurnished, unsubsidized apartments rose by 15 percentage points to 72% in Q2 of 2021.

Redfin, the Seattle-based, technology-powered real estate company, is reporting that average monthly rents increased nationwide by 21% year-over-year and were up 7% in the month between October and November. Redfin’s rental data only goes back 2-years, but these are the highest annual and monthly growth rates in at least two-years.

According to the latest release of the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Home Building Geography Index (HBGI), the trend of apartments and other multifamily residential construction continued to shift to suburban areas in Q3 2021. According to the HBGI between Q3 of 2020 and 2021, the share of new multifamily permits fell from 40.5% to 37.9% in large metro core markets.

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (12-20-21) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. in November. According to the report, the LEI for the U.S. increased by 1.1% in November to a reading of 119.9 (2016=100), following a 0.9% increase in October and a 0.3% increase in September.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its new monthly Loan Monitoring Survey (LMS), which tracks the total number of loans now in forbearance. According to the LMS, the total number of loans in forbearance in November declined by 39 basis points from 2.6% of servicers’ portfolio in the month prior to 1.67% as of November 30, 2021.

According to statistics released on Wednesday (12-15-21) by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems edged up 0.6% between October and November 2021. The small increase followed on the heels of a 9% increase in activity in October. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in November 2021 was very strong historically, edging down a scant -0.7% on a year-over-year basis.

In November, U.S. home values increased 1.2% from October and year-over-year they are 19.3% higher. This is a record high for price appreciation for any 12-month period in this century. The report notes that while monthly growth slowed nationally, it accelerated in 30 of the 50 largest metro areas. If this trend continues, the market cooling over the past few months may be short-lived, and this could be an unseasonably warm winter housing market.

In their latest report, Redfin, the Seattle-based, technology-powered real estate brokerage firm, is reporting that 59.5% of home offers written by their agents faced competition in November. This is the lowest level in 11 months, and it is down from a revised rate of 61.8% in October and the peak pandemic levels of 74.6% set in April of this year.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported on Thursday that privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,679,000. This is 11.8% above the revised October rate of 1,502,000 and is 8.3% above the November 2020 rate of 1,551,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,173,000, and this is 11.3% above the revised October figure of 1,054,000.