Leading Economic Index® for U.S. Climbs Higher in November

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (12-20-21) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. in November. According to the report, the LEI for the U.S. increased by 1.1% in November to a reading of 119.9 (2016=100), following a 0.9% increase in October and a 0.3% increase in September.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3% in November to a reading of 106.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in October and no change in September.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. decreased by -0.1% percent in November to a reading of 107.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in October and a 0.9% increase in September.

In a statement prepared for the release of the November LEI, Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, said, “The U.S. LEI rose sharply again in November, suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2022. Inflation and continuing supply chain disruptions, as well as a resurgence of COVID-19, pose risks to GDP growth in 2022. Still, the economic impact of these risks may be contained.”

“The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth to strengthen in Q4 2021 to about 6.5 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still healthy rate of 2.2 percent in Q1 2022,” Ozyildirim added.