News in end use

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Application Survey, for the week ending December 16th, the Market Composite Index (a measure of mortgage loan application volume) increased 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Statistics Canada reported today that the Consumer Price Index increased 6.8% year-over-year in November, following a 6.9% increase in October. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% year-over-year in November, following a gain of 5.3% in October.

The Conference Board released today its Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for December 2022. The CCI, following back-to-back monthly declines, rose precipitously. The Index now stands at 108.3 (1985=100), up from November’s reading of 101.4.

According to the National Association of Home Builder’s analysis of the 2021 American Community Survey, the owner vacancy rate fell below 0.9% and rental vacancy rates reached a new low of 5.2%. These are the lowest levels recorded by the ACS since the survey started generating this data in 2005.

The National Association of Realtors® reported on Wednesday that total existing home sales—completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops—recorded a 7.7% decline in November to a seasonally adjusted rate at 4.09 million homes.

The US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000; this is 0.5% below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 and is 16.4% below the November 2021 rate of 1706,000.

According to the ESR Group, following an upward revision in 2022Q3 real GDP and stronger-than-expected incoming personal consumption data to begin Q4, the economy is now expected to ‘eke out’ positive growth of 0.4% in 2022 before entering a modest recession in the new year.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Tuesday that data from their Builder Application Survey for November revealed that mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 1% month-over-month but were down 25.2% year-over-year.

According to the new monthly Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Loan Monitoring Survey, the total number of loans in forbearance was unchanged from October’s reading of 0.70%, as of November 30, 2022. The MBA estimates that 350,000 homeowners are now in forbearance plans.

On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index reported that builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes dropped 2 points lower in December to a reading of 31. This marks the twelfth consecutive monthly decline.