News in end use

According to the September 2022 commentary released today (9-21-22) from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group, economic growth is projected to resume in the second half of 2022. However, the combination of high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and a slowing housing market is likely to tip the economy into a modest recession in the new year.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Application Survey, for the week ending September 16, the Market Composite Index (a measure of mortgage loan application volume) increased 3.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Redfin reported that US asking rents soared to a record high in August but noted that rent growth had moderated for the third consecutive month. According to Redfin, the US national median asking rent was up 11% year-over-year in August to $2,039.

The National Association of Realtors® reported on Wednesday that total existing home sales—completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops—recorded a 0.4% decline in August from July. Sales were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.80 million homes.

The US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that privately‐owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,575,000. This is 12.2% above the revised July estimate of 1,404,000 but 0.1% below the August 2021 rate of 1,576,000.

Statistics Canada reported today that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 7.0% on a year-over-year basis in August, down from July’s 7.6% gain. This was the second consecutive slowdown in the year-over-year price growth.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported today its Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for August 2022. The BAS shows that mortgage applications for new homes purchased in August declined 10.1% year-over-year. When compared to July of 2022, applications increased by 17%.

According to the new monthly Mortgage Bankers Association Loan Monitoring Survey, the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points, from 0.74% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.72% as of August 31.

According to the latest report from Redfin, seasonally adjusted new listings of homes for sale declined 8% month-over-month in August to their lowest level since May 2020. Prior to the pandemic, there hadn’t been so few homes listed in the market since 2012.

Statistics Canada reported today that the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) fell 1.2% month-over-month in August, its third consecutive monthly drop. Prices of raw materials, as measured by the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI), declined 4.2% on a monthly basis in August.