News in end use

Citing an upward revision in recent consumer spending data, Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group is now forecasting stronger Q1 GDP growth while maintaining its belief that economic momentum is running out of steam.

Statistics Canada reported on Thursday that in February, 388,000 Canadians received regular Employment Insurance (EI) benefits, up by 11,000, or 3%, from January’s total. The February increase was the first monthly increase since July 2022.

On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors® reported that total existing home sales recorded a 2.4% decline in March from February to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.44 million. At the end of March, total housing inventory registered was 980,000 units, up 1.0% from February.

According to Fannie Mae’s latest Home Price Index (FNM-HPI), single-family home prices increased at a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.7% from 2022Q1 to 2023Q1, down from the previous quarter’s revised annual growth rate of 8.6%.

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® for the week ending April 20th. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.39%, up from last week when it averaged 6.27%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year rate averaged 5.11%.

The Conference Board released Thursday its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US in March. The LEI declined 1.2% to a reading of 108.4 (2016=100) after posting a decline of 0.5% in February. The LEI has dropped 4.5% over the six-month period from September 2022 to March.

The US Department of Labor is reporting that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 245,000 during the week ending on Saturday, April 15th. This is an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 240,000.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is reporting that data from its Builder Application Survey (BAS) reveal mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 10% month-over-month in March and were up 0.6% year-over-year. This change does not include any adjustments for typical seasonal patterns.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported Wednesday that the standalone monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada declined 11% in March to 213,865 units, compared to February’s 240,927 units.

Statistics Canada reported Wednesday that prices of products manufactured in Canada, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), inched up 0.1% month-over-month in March, following a 0.6% decline in February. Year-over-year, the IPPI was down 1.8%.