The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index® Declines Again in March

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released Thursday (4-20-23) its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US in March. According to the report, the LEI declined 1.2% in March to a reading of 108.4 (2016=100) after posting a decline of 0.5% in February and a 0.3% decline in January. The LEI has dropped 4.5% over the six-month period from September 2022 to March—a much steeper rate of decline than its 3.5% contraction over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased by 0.2% in March to a reading of 110.2 (2016=100) after an increase of 0.2% in both February and January. The CEI has increased by 0.8% over the six-month period from September 2022 to March—slightly lower than the 1.0% growth recorded over the previous six-month period. The Conference Board notes that the CEI component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recession in the US. Payroll employment’s contribution to the coincident economic index weakened somewhat in March.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) decreased by 0.2% in March to a reading of 118.3 (2016=100), following increases of 0.2% in February and 0.1% in January. The LAG has increased by 1.1% over the six-month period from September 2022 to March—substantially less than the growth rate of 4.4% over the previous six-month period.

Adding additional background and his analysis to the March LEI, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said:

“The US LEI fell to its lowest since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead. The weakness among the index’s components were wide spread in March and have been so over the past six months, which pushed the growth rate of the LEI deeper into negative territory. Only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials contributed positively over the last six months. The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023.”