Expert says New Zealand’s Log Exports to Peak in 2026 and then Decline by a Third

According to an industry report by the investment house Forsyth Barr, New Zealand’s forestry sector is about to undergo major changes as raw log exports fade due to dwindling supplies and domestic demand increases from the home building industry.

Andy Bowley, the author of the report and head of research at Forsyth Barr, suggests that the mainstay of the New Zealand’s forestry industry, log exports will peak in 2026 and then decline by more than a third. “Insufficient planting activity after the 1990s boom means total harvest volumes will fall,” Bowley said.

Bowley also notes that, “The use of wood domestically is undergoing a transformation through the use of trees to sequester carbon, power boilers and as a low carbon building material alternative.” He said that would see the medium-term outlook driven by small forestry owners, who would influence export log volumes depending on demand and supply chain constraints. Another wild card is the government’s plan to change the industry towards more domestic processing and higher value processed products.