Archive of the2025 Agenda

• Crystal Gauvin – Senior Economist, FEA

FEA’s leading experts—Brendon Lowney, Paul Jannke, and Rocky Goodnow—will provide an overview of FEA’s Global Log and Lumber Outlook. Presentations will be followed by a Q&A period.

Highlights and analysis:

• Global economic environment and its effects on the wood products and timber industries in 2025–26
• Trends shaping North American housing and residential remodeling—key drivers of wood product demand
• The complexities of global trade as tariffs reshape timber flows and market opportunities
• Changing dynamics of the Chinese economy and their influence on global wood product demand
• Other macroeconomic factors affecting the global log and lumber trade

Highlights and analysis:

• The economic environment’s effects on lumber products in an era of uncertainty
• The implications of changing duties and tariffs on global trade patterns
• Regional consumption trends:
  • Will 2025 mark the start of a recovery in European consumption, or are we in for more of the same?
  • Has the collapse in Chinese consumption become the new normal?
  • Can North American consumption grow amid affordability headwinds?
• When markets recover, where will the lumber come from?

Highlights and analysis:

• Update on regional supply constraints:
  • What opportunities exist to boost harvest levels in North America outside the US South?
  • How much can Europe harvest now that salvage harvests are declining?
  • Can we expect to see increased log production from other producing regions?
• Winners and losers in the global log trade from US policy changes
• What are realistic expectations for increased harvests from federal lands?
  • Logging and milling constraints
  • Litigation
  • Institutional knowledge
• Will declining availability from state and private lands offset potential increases in federal supply?

• Robert Fouquet – Partner, FEA

This session will feature a discussion format, followed by an audience Q&A.

Highlights and analysis:

• North American panel markets will see steady growth over the medium term as markets improve
• Capacity will increase across products as new mills start up
• Prices are projected to rebound as markets improve, with costs seeing steady nominal increases, leading to improved profit margins over the next three years

Highlights and analysis:

• Wood-based panel demand has been weak since mid-2022
• Capacity utilization has fallen below 75% on average
• Input costs have been trending upward in recent months
• Producers are struggling to adapt to sales prices, with no breakthrough so far
• Further consolidation is expected, and smaller producers are under pressure

Highlights and analysis:

• Capacity and utilization in South America for particleboard, MDF, plywood, and OSB
• Export markets for wood panels from South America
• New investments and growth expectations for wood panels in South America
• Future trends and preferences in the South American markets

Highlights and analysis:

• Industry overview: evolution of plywood manufacturing, key producers, and production regions
• Raw material sourcing and technology: domestic vs. imported logs, production processes, and innovations
• Market trends and demand: production volumes, imports, pricing, and end-use applications
• Regulatory environment: government policies and building standards
• Challenges and opportunities: Rising costs, labor shortages, sustainability trends, and global market potential

Highlights and analysis:

• China’s OSB industry: capacity, production, and applications
• What are the main drivers of the aggressive investment in China’s new OSB capacity?
• Will OSB be a rising consumption sector for imported logs in China?
• China's plywood industry in transition

Highlights and analysis:

• Global trends shaping mass timber and hybrid construction, innovation, and delivery
• Evolving role of off-site methods: lessons learned and regional differences
• Wood, steel, and concrete — compliments as well as competitors
• Where does Mercer fit into the mass timber landscape?

Learn more about Nick Milestone

• Brendan Lowney – Principal, Macroeconomics, FEA

Presentations will be followed by a Q&A period.

Highlights and analysis:

• Modernizing building in the 21st century
• History and outlook
• Leveraging simplicity, efficiency, and quality for effective delivery
• Expanding European success to a global scale

Highlights and analysis:

• Australia’s pioneering role in mass timber construction and notable structural applications
• Mass timber’s trajectory—its potential as a transformative building material versus a temporary architectural trend
• Expanding beyond traditional lumber with innovative building products and alternative materials in the Australian market

• Craig Webb – President, Webb Analytics

This session will feature brief presentations and a discussion, followed by an audience Q&A.

Highlights and analysis:

• Construction markets in the US South: Is the current economic turmoil leading to slowing demand?
• Inventory status: Are dealers likely to build inventory ahead of higher duties?
• Product demand: What’s the outlook for the next 12–18 months?

Highlights and analysis:

• Construction markets across North America: Is the current economic turmoil leading to slowing demand?
• Dealer inventory behavior: Have dealers adjusted in response to shifting trade policies?
• Demand outlook: What’s expected over the next 12–18 months?
• Substitution of SYP for SPF: Why aren’t builders substituting SYP for SPF despite the price spread, and at what price point would we see a more significant shift?

Highlights and analysis:

• A producer’s view of markets
• Is North American demand weakening?
• Where are mill inventories?
• How much of the increasing duties will producers be able to pass through to buyers?
• At what price point will mills begin to curtail production?

• Rocky Goodnow – VP, Timber, FEA

This session will feature brief presentations and a discussion, followed by an audience Q&A.

Highlights and analysis:

• Expected policy changes and potential effect on timber markets
• Market implications for Europe’s timber supply following the bark beetle crisis
• Downstream effects of rising log costs

Highlights and analysis:

• President Trump’s executive order on harvest levels from federal timberlands
• The challenges that have historically limited greater harvests
• Potential implications for wildfire mitigation and the regional forest products industry

• Stephen Sabine – Partner, Europe, FEA

This session will feature a discussion format, followed by an audience Q&A.

Highlights and analysis:

• As the third largest importer of softwood, what influence does the UK have on global supply flows?
• How is “Net Zero 2050” driving the use of more wood in the built environment?

Highlights and analysis:

• Sawmill capacity and adjustments in light of recent natural disasters
• US influence on domestic and export sales

Highlights and analysis:

• The main challenges faced by Swedish sawmills
• The feasibility of increased Swedish exports to the US

• Stephen Sabine – Partner, Europe, FEA

The presentation will be followed by a Q&A period.

Highlights and analysis:

• Update on the status of sanctions on Russian trade
• Where is Russia shipping lumber, and how will this shift if sanctions are relaxed or removed?
• What is Russia’s ability to boost timber harvests in the near term?

• Paul Jannke – Principal, Lumber, FEA

Presentations will be followed by a Q&A period.

Highlights and analysis:

• Brief background on Meritage Homes
• Innovative approaches to building homes, and how Meritage uses lumber
• What are homebuilders looking for from lumber suppliers?
• How producers can help homebuilders through their production and supply of lumber?

Highlights and analysis:

• Short background of Shortstack, a builder supplying affordable housing for middle-market earners
• A housing product and a development platform
• Stackable, scalable, and replicable
• Optimizing for urban infill
• Responsive to middle zoning
• Panelized mass timber construction

• Jane Guo – Editor, China Bulletin, FEA

Presentations will be followed by a Q&A period.

Highlights and analysis:

• Is India on the precipice of a sharp increase in demand?
• What products are likely to gain the most traction in the domestic market?
• Will Indian importers move up the value chain?
• Patterns in regional consumption

Highlights and analysis:

• India as an alternative for log exports from New Zealand, Australia, the US, and South America
• Will the India–EU trade agreement be a game-changer?
• Relative preferences for logs and lumber in India
• Update on port infrastructure

• Jane Guo – Editor, China Bulletin, FEA

Presentations will be followed by a Q&A period.

Highlights and analysis:

• Recent shifts in China’s softwood market
• Emerging trends in Vietnam’s softwood market
• The transition from "Made in China" to "Made by Chinese”
• FEA's near-term market expectations for China and Vietnam

Highlights and analysis:

• New Zealand’s current macroeconomic climate
• Effects of economic trends on housing starts and domestic sawmilling
• The government's investment priorities and policy direction
• Developments in the log export market and future outlook

Highlights and analysis:

• Japan’s economic landscape
• Evolving supply dynamics: imports versus domestic production
• Export opportunities for logs and lumber
• The housing industry: history, key sectors, offsite manufacturing trends, new building technologies, and nonresidential construction
Learn more about Seiji Omote

• Mark Smith – Partner, FEA

Presentations will be followed by a Q&A period.

Highlights and analysis:

• Brazil and Chile pine lumber exports: Key destinations, recent shifts, and the outlook for the coming years
• Brazil and Chile pine log prices: Trends in domestic pricing—are they correlated, or do they move independently?
• Uruguay pine log exports forecast: With shrinking plantation areas and rising domestic demand, will exports decline to negligible levels?

Highlights and analysis:

• The interplay of domestic production and imports
• Australia’s timber market dynamics and consumption patterns
• Strategic industry growth—key initiatives and programs driving the evolution of Australia’s timber construction sector