Explore the full Agenda

FEA’s leading experts—Brendon Lowney, Paul Jannke, and Rocky Goodnow—will provide an exclusive overview of FEA’s upcoming Global Log and Lumber Outlook.

2020‒21 saw multiple shocks to both demand and supply including: COVID-19, surging North American consumption, declining fiber supplies in some regions and surging supplies in others, as well as increased restrictions on trade. FEA’s experts will discuss how markets will react to these shocks and present their forecast of the likely path forward for the global industry over the next 2 years.

Session 1 will have pre-recorded presentations from each speaker (available early), plus a live Q&A session on the day of the conference. A recording of the live event will be available afterwards.

Learn more about Brendan Lowney

Learn more about Paul Jannke

Learn more about Rocky Goodnow

Moderator:

• Paul Jannke, Principal, Lumber, FEA

Session 2 will have pre-recorded presentations from each speaker (available early), plus a live discussion and Q&A session on the day of the conference. A recording of the live event will be available afterwards.

The analysis of Europe will explore:

• What is the status of European timber supply after the sharp drop in Spruce Bark Beetle killed timber?
• After plunging in 2020, rising European timber costs quickly drove production costs higher in 2021. Will European lumber remain competitive in global markets?
• How much European lumber is likely to enter global markets and at what price?

Learn more about Christian Nielsen

The analysis of Russia will explore:

• What are the likely impacts of Russia’s ban on supply to China? How successful will the ban be?
• Russia’s policy is designed to increase lumber production at the expense of log exports. How quickly can they ramp up capacity?

Learn more about Slava Bychkov

The analysis of MENA will explore:

• Historically, the Middle East and North Africa has been a major destination for European lumber. Will the region continue to absorb European production?
• With the volatility of COVID-19 and the subsequent collapse in demand for timber and other building materials, what is the future for the regional construction markets as they resume?

Learn more about Amir Rashad

Moderator:

• Brendan Lowney, Principal, Macroeconomics, FEA

Session 3 will have pre-recorded presentations from select speakers (available early), plus a live discussion and Q&A session on the day of the conference. A recording of the live event will be available afterwards.

The analysis of end-use markets will explore:

• Will supply bottlenecks continue to be an issue in 2022?
• Was the 2020–2021 surge in residential improvements “borrowed” from future demand, or can we expect another strong year?
• Will record home prices and rising mortgage rates torpedo demand for new homes?
• Do we expect end-use drivers such as industrial production, furniture, and nonresidential construction to grow over the forecast?

Learn more about Crystal Gauvin

The analysis of lumber markets will explore:

• North American demand is surging. Will this continue or will markets see a setback in 2022–23?
• Capacity has expanded rapidly, but production has trailed as weather and labor supply constraints hamper mills' ability to produce lumber. Will we see a reprieve, or will production growth continue to lag that in demand?
• How quickly can planned capacity expansions ramp up?
• Will capacity expansions continue apace, or are we likely to see a slowdown as markets digest recent and current investments?
• Lumber prices blew through all historical records in 2021. Will we again test those highs in 2022–23?
• There has been a lot of talk about lumber prices being higher over the coming decade. Is this still the case? If so, what is the new “normal”?
• While lumber prices are higher, so are costs. Will costs remain high, or can we expect them to return to more historical levels?

Learn more about Paul Jannke

The analysis of timber markets will explore:

• How close is the US West harvest to exceeding sustainable levels?
• Will the recent increases in log prices in the US South persist?
• Does North America have the timber to meet its growing demand?

Learn more about Rocky Goodnow

Rob will join the live session to offer his perspective as a trader, as well as answer audience questions.

Learn more about Rob LaMunyan

Moderator:

• Rocky Goodnow, Vice President, Timber, FEA

Session 4 will be entirely live, including a panel discussion and opportunity for Q&A. A recording of the live event will be available afterwards.

The analysis of BC will include:

• An update on the province’s recent timber supply policy changes.
• The implications for the industry and sawlog harvests.
• A 10-year pessimistic and optimistic scenario for BC lumber production as a consequence of the changes.

Learn more about Robert Schuetz

Moderator:

• Brendan Lowney, Principal, Macroeconomics, FEA

Session 5 will have a pre-recorded presentation from select speakers (available early), plus a live discussion and Q&A session on the day of the conference. A recording of the live event will be available afterwards.

Pre-recorded interview conducted by:

• Joel Fischl, Senior Advisor, Asia, Economic Strategy Institute (US)

The analysis of China's business economy will explore:

• An overview of the current Chinese economy.
• Current and evolving risks of doing business with China.
• What does the Evergrande affair tells us about the future of the Chinese property market?
• Is it impossible to de-couple from China?

Learn more about Clyde Prestowitz

Paul will address risks to global lumber markets from dependence on the Chinese market.

Learn more about Paul Jannke

Rocky will address risks to global log markets from dependence on the Chinese market.

Learn more about Rocky Goodnow

Moderator:

• Jane Guo, Editor, China Bulletin, FEA

Session 6 will have pre-recorded presentations from each speaker (available early), plus a live Q&A session on the day of the conference. A recording of the live panel discussion will be available afterwards.

The analysis of South America will explore:

• Supply and demand trends in South America.
• Will we see increased exports of South American logs and lumber as historical fiber supply patterns shift?

Learn more about Ernesto Wagner

This on-the-ground analysis of China will include:

• The outlook for Chinese lumber demand and supply.
• An update on the current situation with pine log and lumber phytosanitary import requirements.
• How quickly can Russia ramp up its lumber output to make up for lost log supply?

Learn more about Jane Guo

The analysis of Australia will explore:

• Now that China has banned Australian log imports, where are the logs going?
• Does Australia source more of its lumber from domestic production, decreasing the need for imports?
• Does Australia convert the logs to lumber and ship that to China instead of the logs?
• How important is India?
• Imports of European lumber surged in 2021. Will this continue?

Learn more about Pat Groenhout

The analysis of New Zealand will explore:

• Will New Zealand be able to sustain its recent surge in log exports?
• New Zealand's domestic demand is surging. Will this affect the balance of export and domestic logs harvested?
• Given its heavy exposure to China, will New Zealand look to diversify?
• What are the latest government interventions to encourage more wood processing?

Learn more about David Turner

The analysis of Japan will explore:

• Japan’s continued status as a major importer of high-quality lumber and engineered wood products.
• Will demand for global supplies increase, or will Japan’s growing supply of domestic fiber start to supplant some of those imports?
• Can we expect Japan to increase log exports given the excess supply of Sugi?

Learn more about Seiji Omote