News in end use

The Canadian National Railway (CN) has just submitted an offer to purchase the Kansas City Southern Railroad (KCS) for $30 billion, starting what could possibly be a bidding war with the Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) which previously offered $25 billion last month. Canada’s two biggest railroads are vying for a rail network that links their country with the U.S. and Mexico as a reworked trade alliance gets underway and the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic gathers steam.

According to data released by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) on Monday (4-19-21), Canadian housing starts increased month-over-month by 21.6% in March. Setting a new all-time record high for housing starts at 335,200 units in March, well above industry expectations of 250,000 units.

The latest Mortgage Banker Association’s (MBA) Forbearance and Call Survey reports that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 16 basis points from 4.66% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 4.50% as of April 11, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.3 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.

On Thursday (4-15-21), the Canadian Dollar (aka Loonie) edged lower against its U.S. counterpart (USD), pulling back from an earlier 3-week high set on March 22 as domestic data showed a bigger than anticipated drop in Canadian factory sales. while Canadian investors weighted in on newly added restriction on the economy to battle the ongoing third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A deeper dive into the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payroll employment report, with further analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders, reveals that 49 out of 50 states and the District of Columbia experienced an increase jobs in March 2021. Alaska was the only state to shed employment and that was just 200 jobs.

The University of Michigan released today (4-16-21) its preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for April. Month-over-month the ICS rose 1.9% from 84.9% in March to 86.5% in April. When compared to April 2020, the ICS increased 20.5% or 71.8% to 86.5%.

The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that privately‐owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,739,000. This is 19.4% above the revised February estimate of 1,457,000 and is 37.0% above the March 2020 rate. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,238,000; and this is 15.3% above the revised February figure of 1,074,000.

Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) are reporting that their Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) dropped to 7.8 months in March, according to an ABC member survey conducted from March 22 to April 5 — a decrease of 0.4 months from both the February 2021 and March 2020 readings. ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales, profit margins and staffing levels increased in March.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) is reporting that following the largest increase observed in seven months in January (+3.4%), manufacturing sales fell -1.6% to $55.4 billion in February on lower sales of transportation equipment. The declines were partially offset by higher sales in the petroleum and coal product, chemical, and wood product industries.

Freddie Mac’s Economic and Housing Research Group is reporting that they are seeing lots of positives in the current economic environment. The company’s quarterly forecast points to the increasing availability of COVID-19 vaccines and the easing of virus-related restrictions, the passage of the American Rescue plan, and its cash stimulus for households as setting the stage for economic growth and sending consumer confidence to a post pandemic high in March.