News in end use

The Conference Board, which was founded in 1916 as a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank, released today (5-20-21) their April 2021 Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. According to the release, the LEI which is based on ten separate components increased 1.6% in April, following a 1.3% increase in March and a -0.1% decline in February.

The most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, with analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reveals that townhouse construction continued at a robust pace in Q1 of 2021. This follows the best quarter of townhouse construction in 2.5 years at the end of 2020.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey for the week ending May 14, 2021, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.2% from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1% compared with the previous week.

According to Statistics Canada (StatsCan), the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.4% on a year-over-year basis — its fastest pace since May 2011, up from March’s gain of 2.2% gain. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.6% in April.

The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that privately‐owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,569,000. This is -9.5% below the revised March estimate of 1,733,000 but is 67.3% above the April 2020 rate.

The latest Mortgage Banker Association’s (MBA) Forbearance and Call Survey reports that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 14 basis points from 4.36% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 4.22% as of May 9, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.

According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the trend in housing starts was 279,055 units in April 2021, up month-over-month from 272,164 units in March.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales in Canada declined 12.5% on a month-over-month basis in April. However, March was a record setting month.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reports that builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family home was unchanged in May from April’s reading of 83. Builder confidence topped at a level of 90 in November 2020.

According to HouseCanary, the San Francisco based, valuation-focused real estate brokerage which provides software and service to the real estate marketplace, latest data indicates that the housing shortage could linger for a while. However, there might be hope on the horizon.