News in end use

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) is reporting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, up from a 1.1% gain in February. As Canada marked the end of the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, price growth in March 2021 was accentuated by what is known as base-year effects, originating in March 2020.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey for the week ending April 16, 2021, the Market Composite Index — a measure of mortgage loan application volume — increased 8.6% percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9% compared with the previous week.

The Canadian National Railway (CN) has just submitted an offer to purchase the Kansas City Southern Railroad (KCS) for $30 billion, starting what could possibly be a bidding war with the Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) which previously offered $25 billion last month. Canada’s two biggest railroads are vying for a rail network that links their country with the U.S. and Mexico as a reworked trade alliance gets underway and the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic gathers steam.

According to data released by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) on Monday (4-19-21), Canadian housing starts increased month-over-month by 21.6% in March. Setting a new all-time record high for housing starts at 335,200 units in March, well above industry expectations of 250,000 units.

The latest Mortgage Banker Association’s (MBA) Forbearance and Call Survey reports that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 16 basis points from 4.66% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 4.50% as of April 11, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.3 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.

On Thursday (4-15-21), the Canadian Dollar (aka Loonie) edged lower against its U.S. counterpart (USD), pulling back from an earlier 3-week high set on March 22 as domestic data showed a bigger than anticipated drop in Canadian factory sales. while Canadian investors weighted in on newly added restriction on the economy to battle the ongoing third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A deeper dive into the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payroll employment report, with further analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders, reveals that 49 out of 50 states and the District of Columbia experienced an increase jobs in March 2021. Alaska was the only state to shed employment and that was just 200 jobs.

The University of Michigan released today (4-16-21) its preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for April. Month-over-month the ICS rose 1.9% from 84.9% in March to 86.5% in April. When compared to April 2020, the ICS increased 20.5% or 71.8% to 86.5%.

The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that privately‐owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,739,000. This is 19.4% above the revised February estimate of 1,457,000 and is 37.0% above the March 2020 rate. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,238,000; and this is 15.3% above the revised February figure of 1,074,000.

Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) are reporting that their Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) dropped to 7.8 months in March, according to an ABC member survey conducted from March 22 to April 5 — a decrease of 0.4 months from both the February 2021 and March 2020 readings. ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales, profit margins and staffing levels increased in March.