News in end use

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today (10-8-21) that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 194,000 in September. This follows an increase of 235,000 in August, a revised 1.1 million in July, and a revised 962,000 increase in June. Nonfarm payroll employment has increased by 17.4 million since April 2020 but is down by -5.0 million, or -3.3%, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending October 7, 2021. The PMMS reports that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.99% with an average 0.7 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.01%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.87%.

The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 326,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, October 2, 2021. This is a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 344,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average.

According to the latest released Job Cut Report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas (CG&C), Inc, a global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm, U.S.-based employers’ announced job cuts rose by 14% in September to 17,985, up from the 24-year low of 15,723 cuts announced in August. September 2021 total is 85% lower than September 2020, when 118,804 cuts were announced.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey (WMAS), for the week ending October 1, 2021, the Market Composite Index — a measure of mortgage loan application volume — decreased -6.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased -7% compared with the previous week.

According to the September ADP® National Employment Report™ nonfarm private sector employment increased by 568,000 jobs from August to September. The ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.

A deeper analysis of the U.S. Census Construction Spending data, provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reveals that total private residential construction spending rose 0.4% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $786.6 billion. Year-over-year total private residential spending was 24.3% higher.

The latest Mortgage Banker Association’s (MBA) Forbearance and Call Survey reports that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 2.96% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.89% as of September 26, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.4 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) is reported today (10-4-21) that the nationwide total of building permits decreased -2.1% month-over-month in August to $9.7 billion (CAD). The report notes that while most of the provinces reported increases in building permits, significant declines in British Columbia and Ontario resulted in the lower month-over-month loss.

Smith Leonard’s latest Monthly Furniture Insight® survey of residential furniture manufacturers and distributors reported that for the first time since June 2020, new orders in July 2021 were down compared to the same month of 2020. New orders were down -11% compared to July 2020.