News in end use

The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 268,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday November 13, 2021 — a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial job claims since March 14, 2020, when it was 256,00.

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending November 10, 2021. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.10% with an average 0.7 point up from last week when it averaged 2.98%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.72%.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported on Wednesday (11-17-21) that privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,520,000. This is -0.7% below the revised September rate of 1,530,000 but is 0.4% above the October 2020 rate of 1,514,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 1,039,000, which is -3.9% below the revised September figure.

Further analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reveals that the number of single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) construction starts reached its highest quarterly volume on record in Q3 2021. During Q3 2021, there were approximately 16,000 single-family built-for-rent starts.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) reported on Wednesday (11-17-21) that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.7% on a year-over-year basis in October, up from a 4.4% increase in September. October’s increase was the largest increase since February 2003. Excluding energy, the CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, matching September’s increase.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey (WMAS), for the week ending November 12, 2021, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased -2.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased -4% compared with the previous week.

A recently released report from OJO Labs, a Texas-based real estate technology and guidance company, reveals that 40.9% of homes in October sold for more than the list price — a portion that has been steadily declining for the past four months. The percentage of homes selling above list price sat at 42.8% in September, so the decrease, while minor, showed a steady four-month trend of month-over-month decreases.

Statistics Canada (StatsCan) today (11-16-21) released it flash estimates for the October Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI). The IPPI was up 1.3% month-over-month and 16.7% year-over-year. The lumber and other wood products group (+5.4%) was the second largest contributor to the month-over-month gain in the IPPI in October, after posting four consecutive monthly declines.

According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the trend in housing starts in Canada was at 264,264 units in October, down from 270.661 units in September. The “trend” measure is a 6-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts. In October, the standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 236,554 units — a decline of -5.3% from 249,922 units in September.

According to the Mortgage Banker Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) for October 2021, year-over-year mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased -15.2%. Compared to September 2021, applications increased by 6%. Based on the data from the BAS, the MBA estimates that new single-family homes sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 897,000 units in October 2021.