News in end use

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending December 23, 2021. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.05% with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.12%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.66%.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday (11-23-21) that according to their estimates, personal income (PI) increased $90.4 billion, or 0.4% in November. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $70.4 billion, or 0.4% in November. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $104.7 billion, or 0.6% in November.

The University of Michigan today (12-23-21), released its final Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for December. The Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to a reading of 70.6 in December, up from 67.4 in November. This is month-over-month increase of 4.7%.

The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 205,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, December 18, 2021. This is unchanged from last week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 206,250.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released today (12-22-21) its “third” estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2021 Q3. In the “third” estimate for the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3% — 0.2% higher than in the “second” estimate. The estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate, which was issued last month.

On Wednesday (12-22-21), The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported that total existing home sales (completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops) increased 1.9% from October to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.46 million homes in November. This marks the third consecutive month of growth. Year-over-year, however, sales are down -2.0% (6.59 million in November 2020).

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (12-22-21) their Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for December 2021. The CCI increased in December, after an upwards revision in November, and an uptick in October. This follows decreases in September, August, July, and June. The Index now stands at 115.8 (1985=100), up from 111.9 in November.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey (WMAS), for the week ending December 17, 2021, the Market Composite Index (a measure of mortgage loan application volume) decreased -0.6% percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased -1% compared with the previous week.

According to the December 2021 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group (ESR), the outlook for full-year 2021 economic growth was revised upward to 5.5% — an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to November’s projections. The increases are due primarily to stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending and inventory investment data.

According to data from the recently released U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Market Absorption of Apartments (SOMA) and further analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the multifamily sector saw continued improvement in Q2 of 2021 due to strong demand and low vacancy rates. The absorption rate of unfurnished, unsubsidized apartments rose by 15 percentage points to 72% in Q2 of 2021.