Freddie Mac released its new Quarterly Forecast on Friday (1-21-22). The forecast is from Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist Sam Khater, who is predicting that in spite of mortgage interest rates rising, the single-family housing market in 2022 will remain stable. Khater added that rising rates will lead to moderation in homebuyer demand, slowing house price growth somewhat.
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Americans Continue to Place Homeownership on Hold
According to the National Association of Home Builders’ Q4 2021 Housing Trends Report (HTR), the share of U.S. adults planning a home purchase within the next 12 months has fallen for the second consecutive quarter. The share fell from 17% in Q2, to 16% in Q3, to 15% in Q4. The HTR sees more Americans postponing their homeownership plans due to higher home prices and low housing availability — relative to demand.
U.S. to Close Borders to Unvaccinated Canadian and Mexican Truckers Effective Saturday, January 22, 2022
In a statement released on Thursday (1-20-22) Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas, said, “Starting on January 22, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security will require that non-US individuals entering the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals along our Northern and Southern borders be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and be prepared to show related proof of vaccination.”
December’s Monthly Forbearance Report Shows Steady Decline in Number of Homeowners Still in Plans
According to the new monthly Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Loan Monitoring Survey (LMS), the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 25 basis points from 1.67% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 1.41% as of 31st December 2021. The MBA estimates that 705,000 homeowners remain in forbearance plans.
Leading Economic Index® for U.S. Increases in December
The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (1-21-22) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. in December. According to the report, the LEI for the U.S. increased by 0.8% in December to 120.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7% increase in November, a 0.7% increase in October, and a 0.3% increase in September. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2% in December.
New Home Mortgage Applications Drop Both Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year in December
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) December Builder Application Survey (BAS), mortgage applications for new home purchases declined -7.1% year-over-year. Compared to November 2021, applications decreased by 5%. This change does not include any adjustments typical seasonal patterns. The BAS tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of home builders across the country.
Canadian Unemployment Dips in November
Statistics Canada (StatsCan) reported on Thursday (1-20-22) that in the week ending November 13, 2021, approximately 692,000 Canadians were receiving regular Employment Insurance (EI). This is down 50,000 (-6.7%) from October. There were -1.0 million fewer regular EI beneficiaries in November than in May 2021, when the number of regular EI beneficiaries reached its COVID-19 pandemic peak.
Remodeler Sentiment Continued to Improve in Q4 2021
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Royal Building Products Remodeling Market Index (RMI) reports that residential remodelers’ sentiment in Q4 2021 increased to a reading of 83 — up four points from the Q4 2020 reading of 79. The increase is a sign, the report says, that reflects the positive sentiment of remodelers for projects of all sizes.
Existing Home Sales Decline Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year in December
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported on Thursday (1-20-22) that total existing home sales, which are completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, declined -4.6% in December from November. Sales were at a seasonally adjusted rate at 6.18 million homes. Year-over-year sales are down -7.1% (6.65 million December 2020).
Mortgage Rates Climb Higher in Week Ending January 20, 2022 — The Fourth Week in a Row
Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending January 20, 2022. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.56% with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.45%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.77%.