News in end use

According to the new monthly Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Loan Monitoring Survey (LMS), the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by -11 basis points from 1.05% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.94% as of April 30, 2022. The MBA estimates that 470,000 homeowners remain in forbearance plans.

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported today (5-16-22) that the trend in housing starts in Canada was 257,846 units in April, up from 253,226 units in March. This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of housing starts.

According to statistics released on Monday by the Canadian Real Estate Association, home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems declined -12.6% between March and April. The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index edged down -0.6% on a month-over-month basis in April—the first month-over-month decline since April 2020.

According to the latest Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (BNCCI), a measure of sentiment based on weekly polling, Canadian consumer confidence recorded its sharpest weekly decline since the darkest moments of the pandemic, with inflation and deteriorating outlook for housing weighing on consumer confidence.

A closer look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which was released on Thursday (5-12-22), with further analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reveals that the prices of goods used in residential construction (ex-energy and not seasonally adjusted) increased 0.5% in April.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily, mortgage loan originations increased 72% in Q1, when compared to the same period in 2021. In alignment with seasonality trends, originations during first three months of 2022 were -39% lower than Q4 of 2021.

In its latest report, which covers the four-week period ending May 8, 2022, Redfin, the Seattle-based, technology powered real estate company, reported that the typical home for sale found a buyer in 15 days. This is currently the fastest pace on record.

According to the recently released U.S. Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), the U.S. housing and vacancy rate. The HVS reports that both rental and homeowner vacancy rates decreased between 2009 and 2019. The onset of the pandemic further tightened supplies.

The University of Michigan today (5-13-22) released its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for May. The Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to a reading of 59.1, down from April’s reading of 65.2; this is a month-over-month decrease of -9.4% and down -28.7% year-over-year (82.9 in May 2021).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, seasonally adjusted, increased 0.5% in April. On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 11.0% for the 12 months ending in April.