Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group today released its October 2022 commentary. According to the ESR, the combination of high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and a slowing in the housing market is still projected to tip the economy into a modest recession in 2023Q1.
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Associate Builder and Contractors Backlog Indicator Increases to 9 Months in September
The Associated Builder and Contractors reported on Tuesday that its Construction Backlog Indicator increased to 9.0 months in September. This figure is based on a survey conducted between September 20th and October 5th. Year-over-year the reading is 1.4 months higher than in September 2021.
Producer Price Index for Final Demand Up 0.4% in September
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, seasonally adjusted, increased 0.4% in September. On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices advanced 8.5% for the 12 months ending in September.
Mortgage Applications Decline in the Week Ending October 7th, Marking Third Consecutive Drop
According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Application Survey, for the week ending October 7, the Market Composite Index (a measure of mortgage loan application volume) decreased 2.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Hurricane Ian’s Final Insured and Uninsured Damages an Estimated $41–70 Billion
An updated CoreLogic analysis amid Hurricane Ian recovery efforts estimates $41-70 billion in total flood/wind losses. The estimate includes wind loss, reevaluated insured and uninsured storm surge loss, and newly calculated inland flood loss for residential and commercial properties.
Residential and Non-Residential Construction Employment Continued to Grow in September
A closer look at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics total nonfarm payroll report for September, with a focus on construction employment, reveals that employment in the sector increased by 19,000 to a total of 7.7 million in September. Residential construction added 6,4000 jobs and employment currently is above its February 2020 level.
Mortgage Credit Availability Declines for Seventh Consecutive Month in September
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), which analyzes data from the ICE Mortgage Technology, mortgage credit availability declined for the seventh consecutive month in September. The MCAI declined 5.4% to a reading of 102.5 in September.
Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® Trends Lower in August
Fannie Mae today released its Home Purchase Sentiment Index® for September. The HPSI fell 1.2 points to a reading of 60.8. This marks the seventh consecutive monthly decline, as affordability constraints continue to grow. Year-over-year, the full index is down 13.7 points.
US Nonfarm Payroll Increases by 263,000 in September; Unemployment Falls to 3.5%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, the lowest monthly gain in 17 months. Monthly job growth has averaged 420,000 thus far in 2022, compared to 562,000 per month in 2021.
Canadian Employment Up Slightly in September; Unemployment Edges Lower
Statistics Canada reported today that employment in Canada was little changed in September. After declining in August, employment was up 21,000 in September. However, when compared to May 2022, when employment last increased, there were 92,000, or 0.5%, fewer Canadians working.