News in end use

According to analysis by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) of its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), in November, 36% of single-family home builders reported reducing their prices and 59% were offering special sales inducements. The NAHB says that these are paltry when compared to financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Black Knight is reporting in their December 5th mortgage monitor report that the ongoing home price correction is exposing a growing pocket of equity risk concentrated among purchases mortgage originating in 2022. Of all homes purchased with a mortgage in 2022, 8% are not at least marginally underwater.

The National Association of Home Builders is reporting that slower new homes sales pushed residential construction loan volumes to a post-Great Recession high during 2022Q3. Outstanding builder loan balances are rising as development debt is being held longer as new homes remain in inventory longer.

Statistics Canada reported today that the total value of building permits in Canada fell 1.4% to $10.0 billion (CAD) in October. On a constant dollar basis (2012=100), the total value of building permits decreased 0.9% to $6.0 billion.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% and has been in a narrow range of 3.5% to 3.7% since March.

Redfin is reporting that a record 2% of US homes for sale were delisted each week on average during the 12-weeks ending November 20th. During the same period in 2021, the delisting rate was 1.6%. The share has come down slightly since November 20th.

Statistics Canada reported today that employment in Canada was little changed in November, adding just 10,000 new positions. This follows an increase of 108,000, or 0.6%, in October. Employment increased in Quebec but declined in five provinces.

A closer look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for October reveals that the construction labor market experienced a decline in job openings as the housing market continued to slow. Open construction positions fell from 423,000 in September to 371,000 in October.

On Thursday, the US Census Bureau reported that total construction spending during October 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $1,794.9 billion, 0.3% below the revised September estimate of $1,800.1 billion.

Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS) for the week ending December 1st. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.49%, down from last week when it averaged 6.58%.