News in end use

According to the National Association of Home Builder’s analysis of the 2021 American Community Survey, the owner vacancy rate fell below 0.9% and rental vacancy rates reached a new low of 5.2%. These are the lowest levels recorded by the ACS since the survey started generating this data in 2005.

The National Association of Realtors® reported on Wednesday that total existing home sales—completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops—recorded a 7.7% decline in November to a seasonally adjusted rate at 4.09 million homes.

The US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000; this is 0.5% below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 and is 16.4% below the November 2021 rate of 1706,000.

According to the ESR Group, following an upward revision in 2022Q3 real GDP and stronger-than-expected incoming personal consumption data to begin Q4, the economy is now expected to ‘eke out’ positive growth of 0.4% in 2022 before entering a modest recession in the new year.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Tuesday that data from their Builder Application Survey for November revealed that mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 1% month-over-month but were down 25.2% year-over-year.

According to the new monthly Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Loan Monitoring Survey, the total number of loans in forbearance was unchanged from October’s reading of 0.70%, as of November 30, 2022. The MBA estimates that 350,000 homeowners are now in forbearance plans.

On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index reported that builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes dropped 2 points lower in December to a reading of 31. This marks the twelfth consecutive monthly decline.

Statistics Canada on Monday reported that prices of products manufactured in Canada, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPP), fell 0.4% month-over-month in November but remained 9.7% higher than in November 2021. Energy and petroleum products, which were down 2.7%, led the decrease.

A closer look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payroll report for November (released on 12-2-22), with focus on the construction sector, reveals that of the 48 states that do report construction sector job data—which includes both residential and non-residential construction—36 states reported an increase in November.

Redfin reported on Thursday the findings of their Homebuyers Demand Index—a measure of home-tour requests and other services from Redfin agents—is up 10% and mortgage-purchase applications are up 14% from the end of October, when both hit their 2022 lows.