News in end use

The US Department of Labor is reporting that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 192,000 during the week ending on Saturday, February 18th. This is a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 195,000.

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group reported on Tuesday that it continues to expect the economy to fall into a modest recession. The Group now believes the likely start date will be in 2023Q2. The ESR Group reports that housing started 2023 on a relative high note but also sees this as temporary.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Application Survey, for the ending February 17th, the Market Composite Index—a measure of mortgage loan application volume—decreased 13.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index declined 4.0%.

Data from the US Census Bureau, with additional analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders, reveals that the median single-family square floor area declined significantly to 2,203 square feet—the lowest level since 2011.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is reporting that data from its January 2023 Builder Application Survey (BAS) reveals mortgage applications for new home purchases dropped 3.5% year-over-year. This change does not include any adjustments for typical seasonal patterns.

The National Association of Realtors® reported on Tuesday that total existing home sales recorded a 0.7% decline in January from December to a seasonally adjusted rate at 4.00 million homes. Year-over-year, sales are down 36.9%.

According to the US Census Bureau’s most recent Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design data, with additional analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders, during 2022Q4, single-family attached starts totaled 37,000.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is reporting that, according to its National Delinquency Survey, the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96% of all loans outstanding at the end of 2022Q4.

Redfin is reporting that 31.2% of US home purchases in December 2022 were paid for with all cash. That is up from 28.8% a year ago but down from the eight-year high of 31.9% in November 2022.

A closer look at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index (PPI), with a focus on the cost of construction materials and analysis by the National Association of Home Builders, reveals that inputs to residential construction less energy rose 0.9%, not seasonally adjusted, in January.