The North American wood products markets will enter the winter of 2026–27 facing what could be the strongest El Niño on record. Successfully navigating the months ahead will require market participants to track localized freight constraints, mill log inventories, and fragmented pricing across product composites.
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The LVL industry is caught in the trade storm, but impacts will be limited
Most of LVL production is used in housing construction, either in the form of beams and headers or as flange material for I-joists. In 2025, North American demand was 56 million ft3 in the former segment, and 17 million in the latter.
Repair and Remodeling
Residential improvements account for roughly 36% of North American lumber and wood panel consumption, the same share as new residential construction. Yet the industry’s standard gauge of the sector cannot be trusted, so starting with FEA’s July Advisors, we are replacing it.
Tariffs Would be a Drop in the Housing Affordability Bucket
The Trump Administration’s threat to slap a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico starting on April 2nd will have many unhealthy effects on all three of North America’s economies. If enacted, these tariffs would increase costs and prices and lower total employment, productivity, and real wages across all three economies. However, they will not have a material effect on home affordability in the US.
A Home Design Catalog Takes Aim at a National Housing Shortage
In an effort to speed up much-needed homebuilding, Canada aims to bring back a tool that was last used in the post-war housing crisis.
Canada’s Caribou Conservation Goals and Woodland Management
One of the world’s biggest softwood lumber producing countries is in the midst of a major conservation effort that could place some Canadian fiber off limits to harvesters. Canada is taking steps to preserve boreal caribou habitat through provincial conservation plans.
US Demographics and House Inventories Fuel Home Size Trend
When the pandemic enabled many city dwellers to work remotely in 2020, many people bought new homes in more affordable and sprawling neighborhoods. By 2021, the average size of a newly constructed single-family house in the US expanded, bucking the downtrend in place since dropping from the record-high in 2015.
Canada’s Record Wildfires had Limited Impact on Lumber Supply
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was vast and voracious. The amount of forested acres that burned this year was by far the largest ever recorded at 45.7 million acres. That represents a total land mass that is bigger than the state of Missouri that went up in smoke this year alone.
U.S. Lumber Imports from Europe Hold Strong
US imports of lumber from Europe have risen this year so far, defying many analysts’ expectations for overseas supplies to decrease due to falling demand, weaker prices and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Frame of Reference for Revamped Lumber Futures
Futures markets involve speculation about the future, spot markets deal with the present. They often differ from each other, but when the future finally arrives and the contracts near expiration, futures must converge with spot to function as a practical hedging tool. The legacy contract has done that.