The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (1-21-22) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. in December. According to the report, the LEI for the U.S. increased by 0.8% in December to 120.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7% increase in November, a 0.7% increase in October, and a 0.3% increase in September. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2% in December.
Wood Markets News
New Home Mortgage Applications Drop Both Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year in December
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) December Builder Application Survey (BAS), mortgage applications for new home purchases declined -7.1% year-over-year. Compared to November 2021, applications decreased by 5%. This change does not include any adjustments typical seasonal patterns. The BAS tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of home builders across the country.
Canadian Unemployment Dips in November
Statistics Canada (StatsCan) reported on Thursday (1-20-22) that in the week ending November 13, 2021, approximately 692,000 Canadians were receiving regular Employment Insurance (EI). This is down 50,000 (-6.7%) from October. There were -1.0 million fewer regular EI beneficiaries in November than in May 2021, when the number of regular EI beneficiaries reached its COVID-19 pandemic peak.
Remodeler Sentiment Continued to Improve in Q4 2021
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Royal Building Products Remodeling Market Index (RMI) reports that residential remodelers’ sentiment in Q4 2021 increased to a reading of 83 — up four points from the Q4 2020 reading of 79. The increase is a sign, the report says, that reflects the positive sentiment of remodelers for projects of all sizes.
The Nanwakolas Council and Western Forest Products Reach Agreement on Old Growth Logging Deferral
An agreement between The Nanwakolas Council, which represents four First Nations, and Western Forest Products has led to the deferral of old-growth logging in a section of forest north of Campbell River for two years. The deferral includes preservation of 10 square km of forest identified by an old-growth advisory panel as needing protection. Another 15 square km of priority ancient forests were also deferred through other agreements.
Existing Home Sales Decline Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year in December
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported on Thursday (1-20-22) that total existing home sales, which are completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, declined -4.6% in December from November. Sales were at a seasonally adjusted rate at 6.18 million homes. Year-over-year sales are down -7.1% (6.65 million December 2020).
Mortgage Rates Climb Higher in Week Ending January 20, 2022 — The Fourth Week in a Row
Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending January 20, 2022. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.56% with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.45%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.77%.
Weekly Jobless Claims Increase for Second Consecutive Week During the Week Ending January 15, 2022
The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 286,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, January 15, 2022. This is an increase of 55,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 231,000 — an increase of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
Housing Starts and Building Permits Increase in December, but Building Completions Fall Short
The U.S. Census Bureau reported on Wednesday (1-19-22) that privately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,702,000. This is 1.4% above the revised November estimate of 1,678,000 and is 2.5% above the December 2020 rate of 1,661,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,172,000. This is -2.3% below the revised November figure of 1,199,000.
U.S. Agricultural Secretary Announces “Paradigm Shift” to Address U.S. Wildfire Crisis
U.S. Agricultural Secretary Tom Vilsack and Forest Service Chief Randy Moore announced today (1-19-22) that they will be launching a comprehensive response to the nation’s growing wildfire crisis with a report entitled “Confronting the Wildfire Crisis: A Strategy for Protecting Communities and Improving Resilience in America’s Forests.” The strategy outlines the need to significantly increase fuels and forest health treatments to address the escalating crisis of wildfire danger that threatens millions of acres and numerous communities across the United States.