A closer look at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “advance” estimate of Q4 GDP, with a specific look as to how housing impacted the results and analysis provided by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reveals that the surge in residential investment in 2020, and its continued strength in 2021, allowed housing to remain an elevated component of the GDP — especially when compared to most of the post-Great Recession period.
Wood Markets News
Wuikinuxv First Nation Acquires Forest License from Interfor Corporation
The Wuikinuxv First Nation (Wuikinuxv) and Interfor Corporation (Interfor) have announced a historic agreement to acquire a forest license in the Great Bear Rainforest Timber Supply Area from Interfor. The tenure purchase marks a milestone in the relationship between Wuikinuxv and Interfor. The acquisition, more than six years in the making, triples the forest tenure held by the Wuikinuxv.
Real GDP Increased at an Annual Rate of 6.9% in Q4 2021
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported today (1-27-22) in the “advance” estimate that the real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.9% in Q4 2021. In Q3 of 2021, the real GDP increased 2.3%. The increase primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending.
Mortgage Rates Little Changed in Week Ending January 27, 2022
Freddie Mac has released its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week ending January 27, 2022. The PMMS reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.55% with an average 0.7 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.56%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.73%.
Weekly Jobless Claims Decline in the Week Ending January 22, 2022
The U.S. Department of Labor is reporting that an additional 260,000 Americans made their initial filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending on Saturday, January 22, 2022. This is a decrease of 30,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 247,000 — an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
Western Forest Products Contemplating Operations Curtailment at its Chemainus Sawmill Starting Next Week Due to Log Shortage
In an email statement sent to CHEK (B.C.’s private television station) by a company spokesperson, Western Forest Products is considering curtailing operations at its Chemainus sawmill starting next week due to a log shortage. The email said that “Due to log supply challenges, we anticipate it may be necessary to temporarily curtail operations beginning sometime next week at our Chemainus sawmill.”
The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board Assumes Direct Ownership of 870,000 Acres in U.S. South
The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board (Ontario Teachers’) has announced that it has completed a redemption transaction, where Tamarack Timberlands LLC, an investment vehicle owned by Ontario’s Teachers, has assumed the direct ownership of approximately 870,000 acres of timberland in the U.S. South. The large-scale timberland portfolio comprised of high-quality Loblolly pine is spread throughout the U.S. South.
Federal Funds Rate Remains Unchanged… For the Time Being
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended its two-day meeting on Wednesday (1-26-22) and announced that it had decided not to raise the Fed Funds Rate for the time being. The FOMC cited solid job gains and a decline in the unemployment rated as the reason for keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. “The Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate…”
December New Home Sales Up Month-Over-Month but Down Year-Over-Year
On Wednesday (1-26-22), The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced that new residential single-family home sales for December 2021 were at a SAAR of 811,000, according to estimates. This is 11.9% above the revised November rate of 725,000 but is -14.0% below the December 2020 estimate of 943,000. The seasonally adjusted estimates of new houses for sales at the end of December was 403,000.
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Week Ending January 21, 2022
According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Application Survey (WMAS), for the week ending January 21, 2022, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, declined -7.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased -6.0% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased -13.0% from the previous week and was -53.0% lower than the same week one year ago.