University of Michigan Reports Final Results of Its Index of Consumer Sentiment for November

The University of Michigan on Wednesday (11-22-23) released the final results of its Surveys of Consumers for November.

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to a reading of 61.3 in November, down from 63.8 in October. This is a month-over-month decline of 3.9% but up 8.1% year-over-year (56.7 in November 2022).
• Current Economic Conditions fell to a reading of 68.3 in November, down from 70.6 in October. This is a month-over-month decline of 3.3% but up 16.4% year-over-year (58.7 in November 2022).
• The Index of Consumer Expectations dropped to a reading of 56.8 in November, down from 59.3 in October. This is a month-over-month decline of 4.2% but up 2.3% year-over-year (55.5 in November 2022).

In remarks and analysis prepared to accompany the report, Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said:

“Consumer sentiment fell a modest 2.5 index points, or 4%, from October. While this marks the fourth consecutive month of declines, November’s reading reflects a balance of factors, some of which improved while others worsened. More-favorable current assessments and expectations of personal finances were offset by a notable deterioration in expected business conditions. In particular, long-run business conditions plunged by 15% to its lowest since July 2022. Younger and middle-aged consumers exhibited strong declines in economic attitudes this month, while sentiment of those age 55 and older improved from October.

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.5% this month, up from 4.2% in October, reaching its highest reading since April 2023. Long-run inflation expectations rose from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month, a reading last seen in 2011. These expectations have risen in spite of the fact that consumers have taken note of the continued slowdown in inflation; consumers appear worried that the softening of inflation could reverse in the months and years ahead.”