US Leading Economic Index® Declined Further in July, The Conference Board Reports

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (8-18-22) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US in July 2022. According to the report, the LEI declined 0.4% in July, falling to a reading of 116.6 (2016=100). The decrease follows a 0.7% decline in June. The LEI was down 1.6% over the six-month period from January to July 2022—a reversal from its 1.6% growth over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.3% in July to a reading of 108.6 (2016=100), following a 0.1% increase in June. The CEI has increased by 0.8% over the six-month period from January to July 2022, slower than its growth of 1.2% over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.4% in July to a reading of 114.4 (2016=100), following a 0.7% increase in June. The LAG has increased by 3.7% over the six-month period from January to July 2022. Faster than the 2.0% growth it experienced during the previous six-month period.

Adding additional background on the July LEI, Conference Board Senior Director of Economic Research Ataman Ozyildirim said:

“The US LEI declined for a fifth consecutive month in July, suggesting recession risks are rising in the near term. Consumer pessimism and equity market volatility as well as slowing labor markets, housing construction, and manufacturing new orders suggest that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the US economy. The Conference Board projects the US economy will not expand in the third quarter and could tip into a short but mild recession by the end of the year or early 2023.”