US Consumer Confidence Plunges in April, Extending Five-Month Decline

On Tuesday, The Conference Board released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey for April.

• The Consumer Confidence Index declined 7.9 points to a reading of 86.0 (1985=100).
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased 0.9 points to a reading of 133.53.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 12.5 points to reading of 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

April’s fall in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. The decline was sharpest among consumers 35–55 years old, and consumers in households earning more than $125,000 a year. The decline in confidence was shared across all political affiliations.

The cutoff date for preliminary results was April 21.

In a statement accompanying the report, Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, said:

“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic. The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.

High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers’ views about the stock market deeper into negative territory, with 48.5% expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months (the highest share since October 2011). Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April—the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation.”