US Consumer Confidence Index Declines for Fourth Consecutive Month in March

On Tuesday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey for March.

• The Consumer Confidence Index declined 7.2 points to a reading of 92.9 (1985=100).
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased 3.6 points to a reading of 134.5.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 19.

March’s fall in confidence was driven by consumers over 55 years old and, to a lesser extent, those between 35 and 55 years old. By contrast, confidence rose slightly among consumers under 35, as an uptick in their assessments of the present situation more than offset gloomier expectations. The decline was also broad-based across income groups, with the only exception being households earning more than $125,000 a year.

Adding background and analysis to the report, Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, said:

“Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022. Of the Index’s five components, only consumers’ assessment of present labor market conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current business conditions weakened to close to neutral. Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low. Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.

Likely in response to recent market volatility, consumers turned negative about the stock market for the first time since the end of 2023. In March, only 37.4% expected stock prices to rise over the year ahead—down nearly 10 percentage points from February and 20 percentage points from the high reached in November 2024. On the flip side, 44.5% expected stock prices to decline (up 11 percentage points from February and over 22 percentage points more than November 2024). Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations rose again—from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March—as consumers remained concerned about high prices for key household staples like eggs and the impact of tariffs.”