University of Michigan Reports Preliminary Results of Its Consumer Sentiment Index for May

The University of Michigan on Friday (5-12-23) released the preliminary results of its Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for May.

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to a reading of 57.7 in May, down from a reading of 63.5 in April. This is a month-over-month decline of 9.1% and down 1.2% year-over-year (58.4 in May 2022).
• The Current Economic Conditions dropped to a reading of 64.5 in May, down from a reading of 68.2 in April. This is a month-over-month decline of 5.4% but up 1.9% year-over-year (63.3 in May 2022).
• The Index of Consumer Expectations fell to a reading of 53.4 in May, down from a reading of 60.5 in April. This is a month-over-month decline of 11.7% and down 3.3% year-over-year (55.2 in May 2022).

In remarks and analysis prepared to accompany the release of the preliminary May CSI, Dr. Joanne Hsu, Director of Surveys for the University of Michigan, said:

“Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% amid renewed concerns about the trajectory of the economy, erasing over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June. While current incoming macroeconomic data show no sign of recession, consumers’ worries about the economy escalated in May alongside the proliferation of negative news about the economy, including the debt crisis standoff. Year-ahead expectations for the economy plummeted 23% from last month. Long-run expectations slid by 16% as well, indicating that consumers are worried that any economic downturn will not be brief. Throughout the current inflationary episode, consumers have shown resilience under strong labor markets, but their anticipation of a recession will lead them to pull back when signs of weakness emerge. If policymakers fail to resolve the debt ceiling crisis, these dismal views over the economy will exacerbate the dire economic consequences of default.

Year-ahead inflation expectations receded slightly to 4.5% in May after spiking to 4.6% in April. After two years of relative stability, long-run inflation expectations rose to their highest reading since 2011, lifting from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month.”