The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index Edges Lower in October

On Thursday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its US Leading Indicators for October.

• The Leading Economic Index® (LEI) declined 0.4% to a reading of 99.5 (2016=100) in October, following a 0.3% decline in September (revised up from a 0.5% decline). Over the six-month period between April and October, the LEI fell 2.2%, slightly more than its 2.0% decline over the previous six-month period (October 2023 to April 2024).
• The Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) was unchanged for a second month in a row at 112.8 (2016=100) in October. The CEI increased 0.8% in the six-month period ending in October, higher than its 0.5% growth rate over the previous six-month period. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales (which are estimates for October) contributed positively but were offset by the second consecutive decline in industrial production. Payroll employment was virtually unchanged.
• The Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) declined 0.1% to a reading of 118.7 (2016=100) in October, following a 0.3% decline in September. The LAG’s six-month growth rate was negative at 0.8% between April and October 2024, a partial reversal from a 1.2% increase over the previous six-month period.

Commenting on the report, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, said:

“The largest negative contributor to the LEI’s decline came from manufacturer new orders, which remained weak in 11 out of 14 industries. In October, manufacturing hours worked fell by the most since December 2023, while unemployment insurance claims rose and building permits declined, partly reflecting the impact of hurricanes in the Southeast US. Additionally, the negative yield spread continued to weigh on the LEI. Apart from possible temporary impacts of hurricanes, the US LEI continued to suggest challenges to economic activity ahead. “