The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index Edged Higher in March

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (3-28-23) its Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for March. The CCI rose to 104.2 (1985=100) in March, up from February’s reading of 103.4.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased to a reading of 151.8 (1985=100) in March, down from 153.0 in February.

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—increased to a reading of 73.0 (1985=100) in March. This is up from an upwardly revised reading of 70.4 in February. The Conference Board notes that the Expectation Index has been below 80 for 12 out of the last 13 months, which often signals a recession with the next year.

Adding additional background and his analysis to the release of the report, Dr. Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economics at the Conference Board, said:

“Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.

“While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. The share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ fell, while the share of those saying jobs are ‘not so plentiful’ rose. The latest results also reveal that their expectations of inflation over the next 12 months remains elevated—at 6.3 percent. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase.”