The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Moves Higher in November

On Thursday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its US Leading Indicators for November.

The Leading Economic Index® (LEI) increased 0.3% to a reading of 99.7 (2016=100) in November, nearly reversing its 0.4% decline in October. Over the six-month period between May and November, the LEI declined by 1.6%, slightly less than its 1.9% decline over the previous six months (November 2023 to April 2024).

The Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) improved 0.1% to a reading of 113.0 (2016=100) in November, the same rate of growth as each month between July and October. As a result, the CEI increased by 0.6% in the six-month period ending in November, slightly higher than its 0.5% growth over the previous six-month period. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Personal income less transfer payments was the highest positive contributor to CEI (based on estimates for November), followed by payroll employment and manufacturing and trade sales. These gains offset a third consecutive decline in industrial production.

The Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.3% to a reading of 118.8 (2016=100) in November, after a decline of 0.1% in October. However, the LAG’s six-month growth rate was negative at 0.4% between May and November, a partial reversal from its 0.6% increase over the previous six months.

In a statement accompanying the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, said:

“The US LEI rose in November for the first time since February 2022. A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November. It’s worth noting that gains in building permits were not widespread geographically or by building type; they were concentrated mainly to the Northeast and Midwest, and on buildings with 5+ units rather than single-family dwellings. Overall, the rise in LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the US. The Conference Board currently forecasts US GDP to expand by 2.7% in 2024, but growth to slow to 2.0% in 2025.”