The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Increases Slightly in May

On Thursday, The Conference Board released its US Leading Indicators for May.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.1% in May to 99.3 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in April. The index fell 0.3% between November 2025 and May, compared with a 1.3% contraction over the previous six-month period.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.2% to 114.6 in May, after a 0.1% increase in April. Over the latest six-month period, the CEI rose 0.6%, compared to 0.2% in the previous six months. Its four components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All CEI components made positive contributions in May.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) fell 0.1% to 120.5 in May, after a 0.5% increase in April. Over the past six months, the LAG rose 0.9%, compared with a flat reading in the previous period.

In remarks accompanying the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, said:

“The Leading Index for the US increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread. On the non-financial side of the LEI, only ISM New Orders Index showed some strength, with consumer expectations remaining a major drag. Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic expansion ahead. Consumers are feeling squeezed because everyday costs—especially gas and energy—are rising faster than their incomes, leaving many households with less money available for things like travel, restaurants, entertainment, and shopping. The good news is that businesses are spending heavily on AI, data centers, and new technology, helping to keep the economy growing, while consumers pull back spending. The overall job market is expected to stay fairly healthy in 2026, but economic growth will be weaker than in recent years. The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% year-over-year GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025.”